Betting Odds and Picks for Pirates vs Blue Jays – 5/22/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Toronto Blue Jays

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Tallying 14 outs per GS this year on average, Bubba Chandler places in the 14th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under Total Bases
  There has been a decrease in Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.4 mph last year to 82.4 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.5% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in the game as it relates to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.