Betting Odds and Picks for Pirates vs Blue Jays - 5/22/26

+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-165

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
Tallying 14 outs per GS this year on average, Bubba Chandler places in the 14th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Brandon Lowe has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 100.3-mph over the past 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.5% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
George Springer has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 30.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount lower than his 35.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+5.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.95 Units / 53% ROI)

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