Get Tickets Information for Padres vs Brewers – 6/7/2025

San Diego Padres

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On June 7, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres at American Family Field for the second game of their series. The Brewers, currently 34-30, are having an above-average season but are coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to the Padres in yesterday’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Padres, boasting a 36-26 record, are enjoying a strong campaign and have shown their prowess with a recent shutout victory.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has had a solid year with a 4-1 record and an impressive 2.77 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.36, indicating potential regression. Quintana’s low strikeout rate (16.8 K%) could be a concern against the Padres, who rank as the 2nd least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. This matchup might favor the Padres, as Quintana’s groundball tendencies could neutralize their lack of power.

On the other side, San Diego will counter with right-hander Stephen Kolek, who has a 3.47 ERA and a 3-1 record this season. While Kolek is also considered a below-average pitcher by some metrics, he has shown flashes of competence, particularly in his last start where he delivered six scoreless innings. With both pitchers projected to allow around 2.7 to 2.4 earned runs today, the game is expected to be a close contest.

Offensively, the Brewers rank just 23rd in the league, which raises concerns about their ability to support Quintana effectively. In contrast, the Padres’ offense, while also struggling in the home run department (25th), ranks 19th overall and has been more productive lately.

With the Brewers holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -135, there’s potential value in their betting line considering their home advantage and Quintana’s strong ERA. However, bettors should be cautious, as the Padres are in great form and could capitalize on any mistakes.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Stephen Kolek in the 13th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Elias Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the strongest out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.8-mph average last year has lowered to 84.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+12.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)