Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
(-120/+100)-110
As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on May 24, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this crucial American League West matchup. The Astros, currently at 26-25, find themselves in a particularly tight race, while the Mariners lead the division at 29-21. In the previous game of this series, the Astros fell short to the Mariners, with a score of 5-3, marking a rough night for Houston that they hope to turn around.
Framber Valdez is projected to take the mound for the Astros. He has had a challenging season with a 3-4 record and a 3.57 ERA, ranking as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. Valdez is known for generating ground balls, which could work to his advantage against a Mariners lineup that has already hit 70 home runs this year, the 6th most in MLB. However, his projections today aren’t overwhelmingly favorable, as he is expected to allow 2.3 earned runs while struggling to limit hits and walks.
On the opposing side, the Mariners will send Bryan Woo to the mound. With a 5-1 record and an excellent 2.65 ERA, Woo stands as the 16th best pitcher in MLB according to the same advanced rankings. He’s been more efficient, projecting to allow just 2.2 earned runs in 6.1 innings of work. This matchup puts the Astros’ average offense, which ranks 15th in the league, against a well-rounded Mariners team that boasts a strong 9th place offense overall.
Today’s low Game Total set at 7.5 runs suggests that oddsmakers expect a tightly contested affair. Given the closeness of the odds, this game could very well hinge on which pitcher can outperform expectations and limit damage. The Astros will be hoping Valdez can leverage his ground ball tendencies against a powerful Mariners offense to even the series and snap their recent losing streak.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Considering that groundball hitters have a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Bryan Woo and his 35.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today’s matchup going up against 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Dylan Moore’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 85-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Seattle Mariners batters as a group grade out 4th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 10.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Houston Astros Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Extreme flyball bats like Victor Caratini tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.2% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+7.92 Units / 36% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Dylan Moore has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)