See the Updated Player Rankings for Rockies vs Rangers – 5/13/25

Colorado Rockies

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Texas Rangers

On May 13, 2025, the Texas Rangers host the Colorado Rockies at Globe Life Field in a critical matchup for two teams experiencing vastly different seasons. The Rangers stand at .500 with a 21-21 record, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 7-34, marking them as one of the worst clubs in the league. The stakes are high, especially following the Rangers’ recent victory over the Rockies, which adds more pressure to this second game of the series.

Texas is projected to start Jack Leiter, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season with a 2-2 record and a 5.09 ERA. Although he ranks 235th among starting pitchers, advanced metrics suggest he could be due for better luck, given his 4.40 xERA and 4.25 FIP, both indicators pointing towards an unfortunate start rather than poor performance. Leiter has shown a low strikeout rate of 18.2%, but he faces a Rockies’ offense that ranks 1st in the league for strikeouts, potentially playing into his favor.

Kyle Freeland, starting for Colorado, brings a 0-5 record and an alarming 6.41 ERA. He has struggled throughout the season, but his 3.46 xFIP suggests he could be on the verge of improvement as well. Freeland’s tendency to limit walks could be a double-edged sword against a Rangers lineup that has exhibited patience at the plate, ranking 2nd in the league for fewest walks taken.

While the Rangers’ offense ranks 25th overall and 24th in batting average, they are favored significantly in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 5.07 runs. Conversely, the Rockies’ batting order ranks 28th overall, putting them at a disadvantage as they look to improve their performance amid a dismal season. With the current power rankings showing Texas faltering in their bullpen (27th) but with solid starting pitching projections, this game holds promise for the Rangers as they aim to build momentum in their campaign.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Kyle Freeland has added a cut-fastball to his pitch mix this year and has worked it in 13.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In the past two weeks, Mickey Moniak’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jack Leiter’s 96.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jonah Heim has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Jonah Heim has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)