Weather Forecast for Blue Jays vs Rays – May 05, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Tallying 17.4 outs per start this year on average, Kevin Gausman checks in at the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyler Heineman’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 81.7-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 77.4-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Drew Rasmussen’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (53.3% vs. 41.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+205/-275)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins’s true offensive skill to be a .313, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .126 deviation between that mark and his actual .187 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+205/-275)
  Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.