Weather Forecast for Blue Jays vs Rays – May 05, 2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Tallying 17.4 outs per start this year on average, Kevin Gausman checks in at the 81st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Kazuma Okamoto has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Drew Rasmussen’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (53.3% vs. 41.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cedric Mullins’s true offensive skill to be a .313, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .126 deviation between that mark and his actual .187 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.40 Units / 41% ROI)