Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Athletics vs Phillies - 5/05/26

+180O/U: 9
(-120/+100)-210

Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6.2% more often this season (57.5%) than he did last year (51.3%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Nick Kurtz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Today’s version of the Athletics projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .316 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .332 overall projected rate.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
Cristopher Sanchez was in good form in his last outing and allowed 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Bohm has been unlucky given the .115 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 away games (+14.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 44% ROI)

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