Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Athletics vs Phillies - 5/05/26

+160O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-185

Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 6.2% more often this season (57.5%) than he did last year (51.3%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Nick Kurtz – Over/Under Total Bases
Nick Kurtz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Athletics have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Kurtz, Colby Thomas, Zack Gelof).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
Cristopher Sanchez was in good form in his last outing and allowed 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Despite posting a .204 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Bohm has been unlucky given the .115 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
The 6.5% Barrel% of the Philadelphia Phillies makes them the #29 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 away games (+14.85 Units / 31% ROI)

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