Odds and Betting Trends for Orioles vs Marlins – 5/5/26

Baltimore Orioles

@

Miami Marlins

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average starter, Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Blaze Alexander has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 12.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 20.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Blaze Alexander).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Sandy Alcantara’s slider percentage has spiked by 6% from last season to this one (15.8% to 21.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the last 14 days, Owen Caissie’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 6.5% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins grades them out as the #29 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Samuel Basallo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.60 Units / 160% ROI)