
Milwaukee Brewers
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Los Angeles Angels
-150O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+130
(-110/-110)+130
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)Among every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Jake Bauers has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)In today’s matchup, Christian Yelich is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 42% rate (100th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Brent Suter may not remain in the game more than a couple framess since he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Extreme groundball batters like Mike Trout tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robert Gasser.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Denzer Guzman, Travis d’Arnaud, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+11.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+3.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Denzer Guzman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)Denzer Guzman has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)
