Watch the Game Highlights for Astros vs Reds - Saturday, May 09, 2026

+140O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-165

Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Arrighetti must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 61.1% of the time, placing in the 78th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (47.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Out of all starters, Chase Burns’s fastball velocity of 97.5 mph is in the 97th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Matt McLain is penciled in 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

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