Check Out the Nationals vs Marlins Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 5/9/2026

Washington Nationals

@

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Zack Littell’s 2006-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 4th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  James Wood has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season’s 94.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  James Wood has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Janson Junk projects for an average of 16.9 outs in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Liam Hicks has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 17.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 8.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+140)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 away games (+17.00 Units / 49% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)