Updated Player Rankings for Giants vs Brewers – August 29th, 2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 29, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Brewers, sitting at 76-56, are enjoying a strong season and are currently in playoff contention. In contrast, the Giants, with a record of 67-67, are stuck in the middle of the pack, failing to secure a foothold in the postseason race.

In their last encounter on August 28, the Brewers triumphed over the Giants with a score of 5-3, continuing their positive momentum. The Brewers have been bolstered by their potent offense, which ranks 10th overall in MLB and 5th in team batting average. This high-octane lineup will be facing Giants pitcher Hayden Birdsong, who has struggled with control, boasting a high walk rate of 13.3%. This could play to the Brewers’ advantage, as they rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks.

Aaron Civale is projected to start for Milwaukee. Despite being ranked 151st among MLB starting pitchers, Civale has experienced some bad luck this season, indicated by his peripheral stats suggesting he may perform better than his 4.84 ERA. He will attempt to keep the Giants’ offense, which is average at best, in check. While the Giants boast an average 16th ranking in overall offense, they have struggled mightily with power, ranking 23rd in home runs and dead last in stolen bases.

In terms of betting, the projections indicate a closely contested game. With a current moneyline set at -135 for the Brewers and +115 for the Giants, the odds suggest a competitive matchup. Given the Brewers’ superior offensive capabilities and recent success, they appear to hold the edge heading into this pivotal game.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+110)
  The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Civale is expected to record an average of 5.8 strikeouts in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  William Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last season’s 94.7-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Milwaukee Brewers has been 118.1 mph this year, ranking them as the #4 team in MLB by this standard.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 124 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 away games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)