Updated Player Rankings for Pirates vs Brewers – April 26th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Carmen Mlodzinski’s change-up percentage has jumped by 16.5% from last season to this one (11.6% to 28.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.4-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Konnor Griffin, Billy Cook).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Typically, batters like Luis Rengifo who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Carmen Mlodzinski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters as a unit grade out 27th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 6.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+3.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-210)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.75 Units / 71% ROI)