Check the Weather for Padres vs D-Backs Game - 4/26/2026

-130O/U: 15.5
(-110/-110)+110

Michael King – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Over his last 3 games started, Michael King has seen a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2247 rpm over the whole season to 2182 rpm lately.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
In the past week, Jake Cronenworth’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 20.3% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
Ryne Nelson has recorded 12.4 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 10th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.5-mph average last year has lowered to 84.7-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Arizona’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #26 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 7.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 40% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-130)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 3.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)

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