
Washington Nationals
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Chicago White Sox
+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Washington Nationals Insights
- Foster Griffin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)The Chicago White Sox have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Foster Griffin in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.271) suggests that Jacob Young has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .233 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Over his last 3 starts, Sean Burke has generated a substantial jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2541 rpm over the entire season to 2591 rpm in recent games.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)Colson Montgomery has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Bryan Hudson – Over/Under StrikeoutsAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher today) projects as a horrible pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-155/+120)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.55 Units / 36% ROI)
