Odds and Betting Tips for Yankees vs Astros - 4/26/2026

-135O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+115

Luis Gil – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Luis Gil’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (57.1 compared to 50.6% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.310) may lead us to conclude that Ben Rice has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .264 actual batting average.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Spencer Arrighetti was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and notched 10 strikeouts.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Over the last week, Carlos Correa’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.329 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .340 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
New York Yankees – Moneyline (-135)
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in their last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 68% ROI)

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