Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Cubs – Friday, April 17, 2026

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kodai Senga to throw 85 pitches in this game (10th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Chicago’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Brett Baty, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The New York Mets have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert Jr., MJ Melendez, Francisco Alvarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Edward Cabrera has used his change-up 11.1% more often this season (36.7%) than he did last year (25.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs bats jointly grade out 5th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 9.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-180)
  Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)