Player Predictions for Cubs vs Orioles - July 9, 2026

David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
David Peterson has used his slider 5% more often this year (24.2%) than he did last season (19.2%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
Despite posting a .389 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck given the .040 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Trevor Rogers’s 2462-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Samuel Basallo is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Baltimore Orioles have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, Jackson Holliday, Blaze Alexander).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

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