
Toronto Blue Jays
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Atlanta Braves
-105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-115
(-110/-110)-115
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Kevin Gausman has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- The Toronto Blue Jays (19.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Bryce Elder’s slider utilization has dropped by 6.8% from last season to this one (35.1% to 28.3%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)Austin Riley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Atlanta Braves – 2H MoneylineThe Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+12.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
