Review Pirates vs D-Backs Bets and Betting Trends – Thursday, May 7, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Mitch Keller has tallied 17.6 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under Total Bases
  Oneil Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 86.8-mph mark last year has decreased to 83.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.1 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.