Explore the Game Breakdown: Reds vs Cubs Team Stats and Insights – 5/07/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Rhett Lowder in the 16th percentile among all starters in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds (25.3% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the most strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.1 mph this season (91.3 mph) over where it was last year (90.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Moises Ballesteros has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 29.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 11.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.