Explore the Game Breakdown: Reds vs Cubs Team Stats and Insights – 5/07/2026

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Rhett Lowder has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.4% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Blake Dunn).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.1 mph this season (91.3 mph) over where it was last year (90.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Moises Ballesteros – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Moises Ballesteros has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 28.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 11.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-200)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)