Prediction and Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Brewers Match Tuesday April 14, 2026

+105O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-125

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has used his non-fastballs 9.3% more often this season (55.5%) than he did last season (46.2%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Jacob Misiorowski’s 97.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Jake Bauers has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 95.3-mph over the past 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)

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