Phillies vs Cubs Prediction and Team Stats Analysis - 4/21/26

+100O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)-120

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Jesus Luzardo’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 86th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Trea Turner’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 91.8-mph mark last year has dropped to 87.8-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-190)
Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+135)
Generating 17.2 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Shota Imanaga falls in the 87th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
Batters such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jesus Luzardo who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)
The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)

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