Find the Best Orioles vs Royals Picks and Odds - 4/21/2026

+110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-130

Shane Baz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Shane Baz has gone to his secondary offerings 8.1% more often this year (64.2%) than he did last year (56.1%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Coby Mayo’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.5-mph average last season has dropped to 83.2-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blaze Alexander, Weston Wilson, Coby Mayo).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-130)
The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) implies that Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .184 actual batting average.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Kansas City’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in baseball: #5 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 64% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Shane Baz – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-110/-120)
Shane Baz has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)

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