Official Lineup for Padres vs Angels – 4/17/2026

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Angels

San Diego Padres Insights

• Matt Waldron – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Matt Waldron to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jackson Merrill has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last year’s 93.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jose Soriano figures to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Logan O’Hoppe has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .275 mark is a fair amount lower than his .323 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 10 games (+10.65 Units / 88% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Gavin Sheets has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)