Dodgers vs Rockies Insights and Game Breakdown – 4/17/2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Glasnow in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense today (.341 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .366 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Tomoyuki Sugano has posted an 8.2% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, ranking in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jake McCarthy usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Glasnow.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (-180)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)