Dodgers vs Rockies Insights and Game Breakdown – 4/17/2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Colorado Rockies

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tyler Glasnow’s curveball utilization has increased by 9.7% from last year to this one (21.9% to 31.6%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense today (.341 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .366 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s 2399.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 76th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Brett Sullivan tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Glasnow.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Run Line -1.5 (-185)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+8.85 Units / 35% ROI)
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  Will Smith has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)