Mets vs D-Backs Prediction and Game Breakdown - Sunday May 10, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Juan Soto stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
New York’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #7 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Eduardo Rodriguez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (56.2% vs. 44.5% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ildemaro Vargas’s true offensive talent to be a .278, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .134 gap between that mark and his actual .412 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
Gabriel Moreno has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 23 games (+14.95 Units / 56% ROI)
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 30% ROI)

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