Check Out the Orioles vs Rays Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday August 16, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

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Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Trevor Rogers’s 2473-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-220)
  Chandler Simpson’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 83.8-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 79.4-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays hitters as a unit place 29th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+6.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)