Weather Forecast for D-Backs vs Braves – August 16, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Atlanta Braves

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 91.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Michael Soroka checks in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under Total Bases
  Max Kepler has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Bryce Elder has used his sinker 14.1% less often this season (28.1%) than he did last season (42.2%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under Total Bases
  Austin Riley has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-135)
  The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.