Get the Marlins vs Braves Injury Report - Tuesday, April 14, 2026

+140O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-160

Max Meyer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Max Meyer’s slider rate has spiked by 6.1% from last year to this one (46.8% to 52.9%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jakob Marsee has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .330 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .354.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Otto Lopez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Out of all starters, Reynaldo Lopez’s fastball spin rate of 2024 rpm ranks in the 3rd percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
In the past week’s worth of games, Drake Baldwin’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Atlanta Braves today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .326, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .340 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
Drake Baldwin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 33% ROI)

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