
Chicago Cubs
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Pittsburgh Pirates
+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Jordan Wicks – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Compared to average, Jordan Wicks has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -21.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under Total BasesMichael Conforto has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last year’s 90.2-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Chicago Cubs have hit 32.7% of their balls in the air at least 100 mph this year, making them the #6 squad in the majors by this standard.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Braxton Ashcraft will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .159 figure is a good deal lower than his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under Total BasesHenry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
