
Los Angeles Angels
@

Detroit Tigers
+115O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-135
(-110/-110)-135
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jack Kochanowicz (53% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Detroit’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Jorge Soler).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Keider Montero’s slider rate has dropped by 6.5% from last season to this one (23.7% to 17.2%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under Total BasesSpencer Torkelson has strong power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz doesn’t generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Torkelson.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Detroit Tigers bats as a unit have been one of the worst in the majors this year ( 6th-worst) when assessing their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 45 away games (+14.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
