Explore Athletics vs Mets Expert Picks and Betting Tips - 4/12/26

+140O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-165

Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Aaron Civale’s four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 8.2% from last season to this one (16.8% to 8.6%) .
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
When it comes to his home runs, Shea Langeliers has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 37.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.9.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Lawrence Butler has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Freddy Peralta’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (92.9 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Bo Bichette has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8.5% rate last season has fallen off to 2.2% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
The New York Mets have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 10.8° mark is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (#30 overall).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics