Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Cardinals vs Blue Jays Matchup July 31, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Toronto Blue Jays

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Leahy’s 2171-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a sizeable 203-rpm fall off from last season’s 2374-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.6-mph average last year has lowered to 87.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 10.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (19.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+150/-195)
  Nathan Church has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)