Discover the Game Time for Red Sox vs Orioles – Saturday April 25, 2026

Boston Red Sox

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Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Garrett Crochet has relied on his sinker 8.6% more often this season (24.5%) than he did last season (15.9%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Trevor Story’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 93.2-mph EV last year has lowered to 88.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willson Contreras, Trevor Story, Wilyer Abreu).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starters, Trevor Rogers’s fastball spin rate of 2445 rpm ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.215) provides evidence that Jeremiah Jackson has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .278 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank near the top of the league this year (5th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)
  Leody Taveras has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+16.00 Units / 320% ROI)