Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Tigers vs Pirates Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Detroit Tigers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Keider Montero has recorded 17.2 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dillon Dingler’s true offensive ability to be a .317, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .034 gap between that mark and his actual .351 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Detroit Tigers have been the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Braxton Ashcraft in the 90th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Brandon Lowe has big-time HR ability (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (26.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Keider Montero struggles to strike batters out (24th percentile K%) — great news for Lowe.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.