
New York Yankees
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Baltimore Orioles
-115O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-105
(-120/+100)-105
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carlos Rodon to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Wells’s true offensive skill to be a .299, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .039 difference between that mark and his actual .260 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Spencer Jones, Ryan McMahon).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Shane Baz has used his curveball 5.8% more often this year (32.7%) than he did last year (26.9%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Coby Mayo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.60 Units / 29% ROI)
