
New York Yankees
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Baltimore Orioles
-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
New York Yankees Insights
- Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carlos Rodon to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Austin Wells is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Shane Baz has used his curveball 5.8% more often this year (32.7%) than he did last year (26.9%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Coby Mayo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineThe Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+6.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+17.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.05 Units / 84% ROI)
