Discover the Game Location for Reds vs Cubs - Monday, May 4, 2026

+175O/U: 11.5
(+100/-120)-205

Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
Chase Petty has been unlucky since the start of last season, notching a 19.50 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.14 — a 14.36 difference.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
JJ Bleday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Cincinnati Reds hitters as a group place 2nd- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 12.3% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-205)
The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Carson Kelly – Over/Under Total Bases
Carson Kelly’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 91.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 83.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)

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