Recommended Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Cardinals - Monday May 04, 2026

-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Chad Patrick is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue among all stadiums today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tyler Black – Over/Under Hits
Tyler Black is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
With 8 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Kyle Leahy has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Pedro Pages – Over/Under Total Bases
Pedro Pages’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 79.2-mph in the past 14 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The underlying talent of the St. Louis Cardinals projected lineup today (.308 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .320 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics