
San Francisco Giants
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Atlanta Braves
+120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-140
(-110/-110)-140
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)In his previous game started, Landen Roupp was rolling and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Atlanta’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Casey Schmitt, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Martin Perez – Over/Under Pitching OutsMartin Perez has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 8.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Austin Riley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-250)Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
