Cubs vs Mets Injury Report - Thursday, June 25, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
Among all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dansby Swanson’s true offensive talent to be a .334, implying that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .056 gap between that figure and his actual .278 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Compared to the average hurler, Freddy Peralta has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.5 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
MJ Melendez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past two weeks.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 45% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 36% ROI)

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