Game Highlights for Pirates vs Brewers – August 05, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Over his last 3 games started, Paul Skenes has produced a sizeable jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2175 rpm over the whole season to 2264 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has decreased to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Harrison to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+4.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)