
Athletics
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Chicago Cubs
+110O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-130
(+100/-120)-130
Athletics Insights
- Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Over the past 7 days, Zack Gelof’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Kurtz, Zack Gelof, Henry Bolte).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Pete Crow-Armstrong has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+9.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Nick Kurtz has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 42% ROI)
