
Texas Rangers
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St. Louis Cardinals
-110O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Nathan Eovaldi’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (80.4% compared to 72.5% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ezequiel Duran’s true offensive ability to be a .297, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .056 disparity between that mark and his actual .353 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)In his last outing, Dustin May gave up a whopping 6 earned runs.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Nolan Gorman is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jimmy Crooks, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-185)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+6.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 45 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+205/-280)Josh Jung has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
