Blue Jays vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Trends – 4/19/2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to average, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Ryne Nelson has gone to his slider 7.9% more often this season (20.5%) than he did last season (12.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+9.40 Units / 157% ROI)