Blue Jays vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Trends - 4/19/2026

-120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+100

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)
Compared to average, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an additional 5.1 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Eloy Jimenez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Ryne Nelson has gone to his slider 7.9% more often this season (20.5%) than he did last season (12.6%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph EV last year has lowered to 83.7-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have done a bad job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 12.8° angle is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (#24 overall).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+10.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+9.60 Units / 192% ROI)

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