Updated Player Rankings for Tigers vs Red Sox – April 19th, 2026

Detroit Tigers

@

Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Framber Valdez has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  This season, Dillon Dingler has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.3 mph compared to last year’s 92.2 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Garrett Crochet has utilized his sinker 8.3% more often this year (24.2%) than he did last season (15.9%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Carlos Narvaez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.75 Units / 59% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Wenceel Perez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)