Betting Trends for Pirates vs Cardinals Game – 5/20/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all SPs, Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball spin rate of 2047 rpm ranks in the 6th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Oneil Cruz has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (31.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy doesn’t generate many whiffs (6th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Konnor Griffin, Oneil Cruz, Jhostynxon Garcia).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Michael McGreevy has recorded 17.1 outs per start this year, placing in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Jordan Walker has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year’s 92.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-180)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 30% ROI)