Betting Trends for Pirates vs Brewers Game – 8/3/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bubba Chandler has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.4-mph mark last season has dropped off to 85-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected offense today (.315 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .329 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)
  The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Bauers’s true offensive talent to be a .332, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .044 difference between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Milwaukee’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in MLB: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.