St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
(+100/-120)-120
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 4, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this pivotal National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently sitting at 81-58, are having a strong season and are vying for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Cardinals hold a 70-69 record, positioning them as a middle-tier team in the league. Both teams met yesterday, with the Cardinals coming out on top, winning 7-4, which could add some pressure on the Brewers to respond.
Colin Rea is set to take the mound for Milwaukee, bringing a 12-4 record and a respectable 3.70 ERA into the game. However, advanced stats suggest he may be facing regression, as his xFIP of 4.33 indicates that he has been somewhat fortunate this season. Rea’s recent performance was less than stellar, as he allowed three earned runs in just four innings in his last start.
On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, who has been one of the league’s standout pitchers, ranking 23rd among starters. With a 12-9 record and a solid 3.96 ERA, Gray’s 2.84 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky this season and could be poised for a strong outing. He pitched effectively in his last start, allowing just one earned run over six innings.
The Brewers boast the 7th best offense in MLB, although they struggle with power, ranking 20th in home runs. In contrast, the Cardinals sit at 15th in offensive rankings. With betting odds showing the Brewers as slight favorites at -120, the projections indicate a close contest, giving the Cardinals an edge with a projected win probability of 54%. Given the recent trends and pitching matchups, this game could tilt in favor of the Cardinals if they can capitalize on Rea’s vulnerabilities.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Among all starters, Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate of 2524 rpm grades out in the 96th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)When it comes to his home runs, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 24.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.1.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 group of hitters in the game this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Colin Rea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Colin Rea is expected to ring up an average of 16.4 outs in this matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 134 games (+16.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)