Watch the Royals vs Mets Game Highlights – July 9th, 2026

Kansas City Royals

@

New York Mets

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Michael Wacha has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Nick Loftin has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jac Caglianone hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Sean Manaea’s sinker rate has spiked by 23.3% from last year to this one (0.4% to 23.7%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Francisco Lindor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 95.2-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 18% ROI)