Expert Player Predictions for D-Backs vs Padres – Thursday, July 09, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Merrill Kelly has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Pavin Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.9-mph EV last year has decreased to 87.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Griffin Canning has gone to his sinker 9.4% more often this year (9.9%) than he did last season (0.5%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jackson Merrill has been unlucky this year, notching a .274 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .060 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 away games (+10.70 Units / 57% ROI)
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Pavin Smith has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.90 Units / 84% ROI)